1425 Tuscaloosa Ave SW, Birmingham, AL 35211
Macro context
30-year mortgage rate proxy: 10Y + 250bps = 7.04% (vs underwriting rate 7.00%).
HouseCanary AVM anchor
Asking price $118k vs HC AVM $118k (0.0% delta).
Key risks
- DSCR below 1.10 — thin margin on debt coverage
- Year-1 cash-on-cash below 4% — opportunity-cost vs treasuries
- 5-year levered IRR below 8% — limited upside on appreciation assumptions
- Deal classified marginal — requires concession on price, rent, or rehab scope
Wide valuation range suggests model uncertainty. Validate with comparable sales before action.
5-yr levered IRR 5.5% with DSCR 0.86 does not clear residential return thresholds.
Page 2 · Year-1 Monthly Pro Forma
| Line item | M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | M6 | M7 | M8 | M9 | M10 | M11 | M12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPR | $900 | $900 | $900 | $900 | $900 | $900 | $900 | $900 | $900 | $900 | $900 | $900 |
| Vacancy | $-45 | $-45 | $-45 | $-45 | $-45 | $-45 | $-45 | $-45 | $-45 | $-45 | $-45 | $-45 |
| EGI | $855 | $855 | $855 | $855 | $855 | $855 | $855 | $855 | $855 | $855 | $855 | $855 |
| Property tax | $-41 | $-41 | $-41 | $-41 | $-41 | $-41 | $-41 | $-41 | $-41 | $-41 | $-41 | $-41 |
| Insurance | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 |
| Maintenance | $-90 | $-90 | $-90 | $-90 | $-90 | $-90 | $-90 | $-90 | $-90 | $-90 | $-90 | $-90 |
| PM fee | $-68 | $-68 | $-68 | $-68 | $-68 | $-68 | $-68 | $-68 | $-68 | $-68 | $-68 | $-68 |
| HOA | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NOI | $505 | $505 | $505 | $505 | $505 | $505 | $505 | $505 | $505 | $505 | $505 | $505 |
| Debt service | $-589 | $-589 | $-589 | $-589 | $-589 | $-589 | $-589 | $-589 | $-589 | $-589 | $-589 | $-589 |
| Cash flow | $-83 | $-83 | $-83 | $-83 | $-83 | $-83 | $-83 | $-83 | $-83 | $-83 | $-83 | $-83 |
Page 3 · Property Value + Rent Comps
RentCast AVM (current value only)
RentCast AVM fallback — used when HouseCanary returned no coverage for this address. RentCast does not supply forward projections, so the Page 6 forward-AVM section will note "Forward AVM not available."
Rent comps / RentCast AVM
| Address | Asking rent | $/sqft |
|---|
Indicated value (residential): HouseCanary AVM is the canonical valuation for 1-4 unit properties — no sales-comp adjustment grid on SFR memos.
Page 4 · Sensitivities
| $810 | $855 | $900 | $945 | $990 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $106k | -3.8% | -2.3% | -0.9% | 0.6% | 2.1% |
| $112k | -4.8% | -3.4% | -2.1% | -0.7% | 0.7% |
| $118k | -5.8% | -4.5% | -3.1% | -1.8% | -0.5% |
| $124k | -6.6% | -5.4% | -4.1% | -2.9% | -1.6% |
| $130k | -7.4% | -6.2% | -5.0% | -3.8% | -2.6% |
| 3yr | 5yr | 7yr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% appr | -4.2% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 100% appr | 1.3% | 5.5% | 7.1% |
| 150% appr | 6.4% | 9.8% | 10.8% |
| 3yr | 5yr | 7yr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.75% | 3.3% | 7.3% | 8.7% |
| -0.25% | 2.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% |
| +0.00% | 1.3% | 5.5% | 7.1% |
| +0.25% | 0.6% | 4.9% | 6.6% |
| +0.75% | -0.7% | 3.7% | 5.5% |
Page 5 · Strategy Analysis — MARGINAL
5-year cash flow + equity build
| Line | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPR | $11k | $11k | $11k | $12k | $12k |
| NOI | $6,064 | $6,246 | $6,433 | $6,626 | $6,825 |
| Cash flow | $-1,002 | $-820 | $-633 | $-440 | $-241 |
Page 6 · Reconciliation & Methodology
Forward AVM
Forward AVM not available for this property — HouseCanary returned no coverage. See Methodology for the SFR AVM fallback chain.
Data layer used: rentcast
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