Methodology
How the Analyzer pulls data, builds the pro forma, computes returns, and arrives at a PURSUE / WATCH / PASS rating. Built for transparency — every memo's Page 6 lists which fields came from primary data vs estimates.
Data sources
ATTOM Data
www.attomdata.comProperty records, sale comps, tax assessment data
RentCast
www.rentcast.ioRent estimates and rent comparables
HouseCanary
www.housecanary.comCurrent AVM, 1/3/5-year value forecasts, MSA risk scores
FRED (Federal Reserve)
fred.stlouisfed.orgTreasury yields, SOFR, MSA-level HPI
CoStar
www.costar.comReserved architecture slot — requires enterprise contract.
Interface implemented; methods raise NotImplementedError until contract is in place.
Underwriting conventions
- End-of-period cash flows for both pro forma and DCF.
- NOI excludes capex and debt service; capex reserve is in Sources & Uses (Page 5), not opex.
- Levered IRR uses equity contributions and distributions only. Unlevered IRR uses property-level cash flows.
- Terminal sale = projected NOI in the year after the hold period divided by exit cap, less a 2% sale-cost haircut.
- Debt service is interest-only by default; amortizing schedules are a follow-up.
- Conventions follow Geltner & Miller (Commercial Real Estate Analysis and Investments).
Recommendation logic
PURSUE— Levered IRR > 18%, DSCR > 1.25, equity multiple > 1.8x, and going-in cap at least 100bps above the 10Y Treasury.
WATCH— Levered IRR > 12%, DSCR > 1.10, equity multiple > 1.4x. Borderline: the memo lists which thresholds the deal cleared and which it didn't.
PASS — Everything else. The memo states why.
Limitations
- Free-tier ATTOM and managed-Postgres limits — comp queries can rate-limit.
- No CoStar — granular submarket data and broker-validated comps require an enterprise contract.
- Interest-only debt assumption — amortization adds a small drag not captured today.
- No physical inspection — deferred maintenance, code-compliance, and environmental risks are not in the data.