18980 Fenmore St, Detroit, MI 48235
Macro context
30-year mortgage rate proxy: 10Y + 250bps = 7.04% (vs underwriting rate 7.00%).
HouseCanary AVM anchor
Asking price $163k vs HC AVM $163k (0.0% delta).
Key risks
- DSCR below 1.10 — thin margin on debt coverage
- Year-1 cash-on-cash below 4% — opportunity-cost vs treasuries
- 5-year levered IRR below 8% — limited upside on appreciation assumptions
- Deal classified marginal — requires concession on price, rent, or rehab scope
Wide valuation range suggests model uncertainty. Validate with comparable sales before action.
5-yr levered IRR 5.1% with DSCR 0.84 does not clear residential return thresholds.
Page 2 · Year-1 Monthly Pro Forma
| Line item | M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | M6 | M7 | M8 | M9 | M10 | M11 | M12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPR | $1,370 | $1,370 | $1,370 | $1,370 | $1,370 | $1,370 | $1,370 | $1,370 | $1,370 | $1,370 | $1,370 | $1,370 |
| Vacancy | $-69 | $-69 | $-69 | $-69 | $-69 | $-69 | $-69 | $-69 | $-69 | $-69 | $-69 | $-69 |
| EGI | $1,302 | $1,302 | $1,302 | $1,302 | $1,302 | $1,302 | $1,302 | $1,302 | $1,302 | $1,302 | $1,302 | $1,302 |
| Property tax | $-231 | $-231 | $-231 | $-231 | $-231 | $-231 | $-231 | $-231 | $-231 | $-231 | $-231 | $-231 |
| Insurance | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 |
| Maintenance | $-137 | $-137 | $-137 | $-137 | $-137 | $-137 | $-137 | $-137 | $-137 | $-137 | $-137 | $-137 |
| PM fee | $-104 | $-104 | $-104 | $-104 | $-104 | $-104 | $-104 | $-104 | $-104 | $-104 | $-104 | $-104 |
| HOA | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NOI | $679 | $679 | $679 | $679 | $679 | $679 | $679 | $679 | $679 | $679 | $679 | $679 |
| Debt service | $-813 | $-813 | $-813 | $-813 | $-813 | $-813 | $-813 | $-813 | $-813 | $-813 | $-813 | $-813 |
| Cash flow | $-134 | $-134 | $-134 | $-134 | $-134 | $-134 | $-134 | $-134 | $-134 | $-134 | $-134 | $-134 |
Page 3 · Property Value + Rent Comps
RentCast AVM (current value only)
RentCast AVM fallback — used when HouseCanary returned no coverage for this address. RentCast does not supply forward projections, so the Page 6 forward-AVM section will note "Forward AVM not available."
Rent comps / RentCast AVM
| Address | Asking rent | $/sqft |
|---|
Indicated value (residential): HouseCanary AVM is the canonical valuation for 1-4 unit properties — no sales-comp adjustment grid on SFR memos.
Page 4 · Sensitivities
| $1,233 | $1,302 | $1,370 | $1,438 | $1,507 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $147k | -4.1% | -2.5% | -0.9% | 0.7% | 2.3% |
| $155k | -5.4% | -3.9% | -2.3% | -0.8% | 0.7% |
| $163k | -6.5% | -5.1% | -3.7% | -2.2% | -0.8% |
| $171k | -7.6% | -6.2% | -4.8% | -3.5% | -2.1% |
| $179k | -8.5% | -7.2% | -5.9% | -4.6% | -3.3% |
| 3yr | 5yr | 7yr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% appr | -4.7% | 0.2% | 2.5% |
| 100% appr | 0.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% |
| 150% appr | 5.9% | 9.4% | 10.4% |
| 3yr | 5yr | 7yr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.75% | 2.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% |
| -0.25% | 1.5% | 5.6% | 7.2% |
| +0.00% | 0.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% |
| +0.25% | 0.1% | 4.5% | 6.2% |
| +0.75% | -1.2% | 3.3% | 5.1% |
Page 5 · Strategy Analysis — MARGINAL
5-year cash flow + equity build
| Line | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPR | $16k | $17k | $17k | $18k | $19k |
| NOI | $8,154 | $8,398 | $8,650 | $8,910 | $9,177 |
| Cash flow | $-1,606 | $-1,362 | $-1,110 | $-850 | $-583 |
Page 6 · Reconciliation & Methodology
Forward AVM
Forward AVM not available for this property — HouseCanary returned no coverage. See Methodology for the SFR AVM fallback chain.
Data layer used: rentcast
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