691 28th Ave, San Francisco, CA 94121
Macro context
30-year mortgage rate proxy: 10Y + 250bps = 7.04% (vs underwriting rate 7.00%).
HouseCanary AVM anchor
Asking price $1.29M vs HC AVM $1.58M (-17.9% delta).
Key risks
- DSCR below 1.10 — thin margin on debt coverage
- Year-1 cash-on-cash below 4% — opportunity-cost vs treasuries
- 5-year levered IRR below 8% — limited upside on appreciation assumptions
- Deal classified marginal — requires concession on price, rent, or rehab scope
AVM ($1.58M) differs from purchase price ($1.29M) by 21.8%. Investigate before action — possible property-specific factors (condition, ownership type, undisclosed encumbrances).
Wide valuation range suggests model uncertainty. Validate with comparable sales before action.
SF Rent Board — 60% CPI, typically 1.4–3.0% annually Market rent may not be achievable on inherited tenancies. Verify in-place rents with seller before underwriting.
5-yr levered IRR -6.7% with DSCR 0.25 does not clear residential return thresholds.
Page 2 · Year-1 Monthly Pro Forma
| Line item | M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | M6 | M7 | M8 | M9 | M10 | M11 | M12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPR | $4,780 | $4,780 | $4,780 | $4,780 | $4,780 | $4,780 | $4,780 | $4,780 | $4,780 | $4,780 | $4,780 | $4,780 |
| Vacancy | $-239 | $-239 | $-239 | $-239 | $-239 | $-239 | $-239 | $-239 | $-239 | $-239 | $-239 | $-239 |
| EGI | $4,541 | $4,541 | $4,541 | $4,541 | $4,541 | $4,541 | $4,541 | $4,541 | $4,541 | $4,541 | $4,541 | $4,541 |
| Property tax | $-1,551 | $-1,551 | $-1,551 | $-1,551 | $-1,551 | $-1,551 | $-1,551 | $-1,551 | $-1,551 | $-1,551 | $-1,551 | $-1,551 |
| Insurance | $-200 | $-200 | $-200 | $-200 | $-200 | $-200 | $-200 | $-200 | $-200 | $-200 | $-200 | $-200 |
| Maintenance | $-478 | $-478 | $-478 | $-478 | $-478 | $-478 | $-478 | $-478 | $-478 | $-478 | $-478 | $-478 |
| PM fee | $-363 | $-363 | $-363 | $-363 | $-363 | $-363 | $-363 | $-363 | $-363 | $-363 | $-363 | $-363 |
| HOA | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NOI | $1,949 | $1,949 | $1,949 | $1,949 | $1,949 | $1,949 | $1,949 | $1,949 | $1,949 | $1,949 | $1,949 | $1,949 |
| Debt service | $-7,869 | $-7,869 | $-7,869 | $-7,869 | $-7,869 | $-7,869 | $-7,869 | $-7,869 | $-7,869 | $-7,869 | $-7,869 | $-7,869 |
| Cash flow | $-5,920 | $-5,920 | $-5,920 | $-5,920 | $-5,920 | $-5,920 | $-5,920 | $-5,920 | $-5,920 | $-5,920 | $-5,920 | $-5,920 |
Page 3 · Property Value + Rent Comps
RentCast AVM (current value only)
RentCast AVM fallback — used when HouseCanary returned no coverage for this address. RentCast does not supply forward projections, so the Page 6 forward-AVM section will note "Forward AVM not available."
Rent comps / RentCast AVM
| Address | Asking rent | $/sqft |
|---|
Indicated value (residential): HouseCanary AVM is the canonical valuation for 1-4 unit properties — no sales-comp adjustment grid on SFR memos.
Page 4 · Sensitivities
| $4,302 | $4,541 | $4,780 | $5,019 | $5,258 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1419k | -16.7% | -16.2% | -15.6% | -15.0% | -14.4% |
| $1498k | -17.3% | -16.7% | -16.2% | -15.6% | -15.1% |
| $1577k | -17.7% | -17.2% | -16.7% | -16.2% | -15.6% |
| $1656k | -18.1% | -17.7% | -17.2% | -16.7% | -16.2% |
| $1735k | -18.5% | -18.1% | -17.6% | -17.1% | -16.6% |
| 3yr | 5yr | 7yr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% appr | -18.4% | -12.9% | -9.9% |
| 100% appr | -12.1% | -6.7% | -4.1% |
| 150% appr | -6.4% | -1.5% | 0.6% |
| 3yr | 5yr | 7yr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.75% | -10.1% | -4.9% | -2.5% |
| -0.25% | -11.4% | -6.1% | -3.6% |
| +0.00% | -12.1% | -6.7% | -4.1% |
| +0.25% | -12.8% | -7.3% | -4.6% |
| +0.75% | -14.2% | -8.6% | -5.7% |
Page 5 · Strategy Analysis — MARGINAL
5-year cash flow + equity build
| Line | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPR | $57k | $59k | $60k | $62k | $63k |
| NOI | $23k | $24k | $25k | $25k | $26k |
| Cash flow | $-71k | $-70k | $-70k | $-69k | $-69k |
Page 6 · Reconciliation & Methodology
Forward AVM
Forward AVM not available for this property — HouseCanary returned no coverage. See Methodology for the SFR AVM fallback chain.
Data layer used: rentcast
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